Your Bracket Winner Short List

(this post will be updated regularly before games begin next Thursday, March 14th)

On today's podcast (soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers), Obvious John said something to the effect "only about 8 teams can really win it all."  Obviously.

But who are the 8?

This blog post will give you the quick, KenPom answer: Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and Ohio State.  As you will see, you might add UVA and Michigan.

Why?

One simple way of reducing the possibilities is to look at Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings (kenpom.com) -- as this story from last year points out, two telling stats are being in the top 20 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency -- that's the profile of a national champion.  It rarely happens that a lop-sided team wins it all.  (The Bleacher Report story tells you the outliers going into last year and you can see UNC fit the bill last year, too)

My list from above is for teams in the Top 30 -- stretching it a bit.  If you want ONLY Top 20 in both the list is short: Duke (O2 & D10), Michigan State (10 & 7), and Gonzaga (11 & 17).   (this partially justifies our friends @StheSpodcast having Gonzaga national champions in their 4th bracket trial run 😃)

That's a start.  The numbers will change over the course of the weekend, but not much. 

And you have to look at the matchups -- one of these teams having a bracket without meeting another such team pretty much makes them a F4 lock.  At least as a pick.

Good luck.