Obvious Brothers Bracket Challenge Analysis -- After the Carnage Weekend

Since we didn't find time for an Obvious Brothers podcast over the weekend, I thought I'd blog an analysis of the results of the Bracket Challenge so you can begin bragging (or not :)). 

Currently, as is appropriate, one of the Brothers has the lead, as John finished the weekend with 39 by CBSSports's tally (they only use single points...but it doesn't much matter).

He is tied with Swerve.  Who isn't winning (based on possible points, as we'll see later).

Beth and Karen each have 38, which seems somehow wrong, but could be meanful. 

Now, for the analysis:

• John has 135 possible points, which is second best.  He has Michigan (who doesn't?) coming out of the West, Texas Tech coming out of the East -- playing each other in the final game and Michigan winning.  His other two F4 teams are out.  Got that?  Michigan over Texas Tech.  Points there.
• Swerve has a possible 59!  He has Nevada in the Elite 8, the one win that gives him points where others don't.  He can win if Purdue beats Tech (besting John), and Michigan loses to A&M, Duke loses to Syracuse, and Villanova loses in the semifinal.  Got that?  I'm not sure I got it right, but I think that works -- he needs a Nevada and Purdue win and everyone else's team to lose (he can stand Villanova wins up to a point).  Now. 
• Beth has 130 possible points, which is only 4th best.  She has Nova winning it all over UVA (gone!) but playing Duke in F4.  The left side of her bracket is shot.  Got that?  Nova winning, beating Duke in semi.  

• Karen has 134 possible points, which is 3rd.  She has Purdue (homer!) winning it all over Cincinnati (who?!?!).  But has Michigan and Duke in F4.  So, different points, with a Purdue win, Michigan and Duke in F4. 
• Obvious Steve is WAY back in the pack currently with 37, but has the MOST possible points, with 149!  He has Nova winning it all. over Michigan, with Duke in the F4.  

So.  It's hard to figure who wins (Nova is the fivethirtyeight favorite right now at a mere 22% chance of winning.  Purdue and Michigan have 5% chances, according to them (seems odd, given Michigan is the highest seed left in the West, but they do the algorithms, not me).  

Everyone good luck -- given the above scenarios,  it seems unlikely we'll know the winner come next Monday.  It may take the championship game (Michigan v. Villanova?) to tell.