Today, let's try to get a Final Four. The title, if you don't recognize it, is from this stat: the average of the seeding of the Final Four teams is between 10 and 11 (10.9). Last year, if you forgot, it was two 1's in the Final game, UNC & Gonzaga, 3 Oregon & the outlier, 7 South Carolina. That's 12.
Remember: it's not like the last two teams playing for the Final Four berth two weeks from tonight will say "only one of us can win because it has to be an average of around 11" -- but it does indicate that picking 4 4's to make it is statistically very highly unlikely.
Some other statistical notes to remember:
- All 4 1-seeds have made the final 4 only once;
- No 3-seed has ever won the championship (not sure what this means, other than a statistical oddity, but it is a fun statistical oddity);
- No one higher than a 7 seed has ever won the championship -- so you're way out there if you have an 8 winning it;
- Stats say at least 1 1-seed makes the F4 and somewhere between 1 and 2 (keep that in mind).
So, here's today's exercise: using Friday's blog on the 8 best prospects, and today's bracket from the most accurate bracketologist (Dave Ommen at bracketville.wordpress.com
-- he's had the most accurate bracket 2 of last 5 years according to Bracket Matrix, and he's the most accurate over the last 5 years), let's see what we have.
I'll lay out the 7 we had on Friday (Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan and Ohio State) and add #1 seed UVA (they ARE the #1 and they looked awfully good this weekend) and see where they are in Dave's bracket.
(I can't get "blogger" to do any kind of tables, so we'll have to go with this layout)
SOUTH EAST
Virginia (1) Villanova (1)
Ohio St (5) Purdue (2)
WEST MIDWEST
Michigan (3) Gonzaga (4)
Michigan St (3)
Duke (2)
BTW, it's not unusual for there to be a "bracket of death," in one region (yesterday's Jerry Palm version had 4 of these teams in the Midwest!), so this isn't unusual.
If tonight's bracket looks like this, I'll have Michigan in the Final Four. (Add "3").
If you picked the top two 1's, the V's (Virginia and Villanova), that leaves what to do with the Midwest.
Gonzaga has been a hot pick: go UVA, Villanova, Michigan, & Gonzaga and you've got 9.
Take Purdue instead of Villanova and you are at 10.
Stick with our Friday KenPom ratings, and take Ohio St over Virginia, and take Duke out of Midwest and you have 11.
None of this tells you who to pick. But it gives you an idea of how not to get too crazy with high seeds. (FYI, in my practice bracket yesterday morning using J Palm, I had #7 Rhode Island beating UVA in the South...a dream Cinderella, but not likely; I had 2 3's and a 1, for 14...probably high).
Looking forward to Selection Sunday (despite the new, stupid rollout) and look forward to seeing your brackets over the next four days -- Madness begins Tuesday night in Dayton! Bring it on!
Hope you've enjoyed these tidbits. #BoilerUp
-- he's had the most accurate bracket 2 of last 5 years according to Bracket Matrix, and he's the most accurate over the last 5 years), let's see what we have.
I'll lay out the 7 we had on Friday (Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan and Ohio State) and add #1 seed UVA (they ARE the #1 and they looked awfully good this weekend) and see where they are in Dave's bracket.
(I can't get "blogger" to do any kind of tables, so we'll have to go with this layout)
SOUTH EAST
Virginia (1) Villanova (1)
Ohio St (5) Purdue (2)
WEST MIDWEST
Michigan (3) Gonzaga (4)
Michigan St (3)
Duke (2)
BTW, it's not unusual for there to be a "bracket of death," in one region (yesterday's Jerry Palm version had 4 of these teams in the Midwest!), so this isn't unusual.
If tonight's bracket looks like this, I'll have Michigan in the Final Four. (Add "3").
If you picked the top two 1's, the V's (Virginia and Villanova), that leaves what to do with the Midwest.
Gonzaga has been a hot pick: go UVA, Villanova, Michigan, & Gonzaga and you've got 9.
Take Purdue instead of Villanova and you are at 10.
Stick with our Friday KenPom ratings, and take Ohio St over Virginia, and take Duke out of Midwest and you have 11.
None of this tells you who to pick. But it gives you an idea of how not to get too crazy with high seeds. (FYI, in my practice bracket yesterday morning using J Palm, I had #7 Rhode Island beating UVA in the South...a dream Cinderella, but not likely; I had 2 3's and a 1, for 14...probably high).
Looking forward to Selection Sunday (despite the new, stupid rollout) and look forward to seeing your brackets over the next four days -- Madness begins Tuesday night in Dayton! Bring it on!
Hope you've enjoyed these tidbits. #BoilerUp
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