Obvious Brothers Bracket Challenge Analysis -- After the Carnage Weekend

Since we didn't find time for an Obvious Brothers podcast over the weekend, I thought I'd blog an analysis of the results of the Bracket Challenge so you can begin bragging (or not :)). 

Currently, as is appropriate, one of the Brothers has the lead, as John finished the weekend with 39 by CBSSports's tally (they only use single points...but it doesn't much matter).

He is tied with Swerve.  Who isn't winning (based on possible points, as we'll see later).

Beth and Karen each have 38, which seems somehow wrong, but could be meanful. 

Now, for the analysis:

• John has 135 possible points, which is second best.  He has Michigan (who doesn't?) coming out of the West, Texas Tech coming out of the East -- playing each other in the final game and Michigan winning.  His other two F4 teams are out.  Got that?  Michigan over Texas Tech.  Points there.
• Swerve has a possible 59!  He has Nevada in the Elite 8, the one win that gives him points where others don't.  He can win if Purdue beats Tech (besting John), and Michigan loses to A&M, Duke loses to Syracuse, and Villanova loses in the semifinal.  Got that?  I'm not sure I got it right, but I think that works -- he needs a Nevada and Purdue win and everyone else's team to lose (he can stand Villanova wins up to a point).  Now. 
• Beth has 130 possible points, which is only 4th best.  She has Nova winning it all over UVA (gone!) but playing Duke in F4.  The left side of her bracket is shot.  Got that?  Nova winning, beating Duke in semi.  

• Karen has 134 possible points, which is 3rd.  She has Purdue (homer!) winning it all over Cincinnati (who?!?!).  But has Michigan and Duke in F4.  So, different points, with a Purdue win, Michigan and Duke in F4. 
• Obvious Steve is WAY back in the pack currently with 37, but has the MOST possible points, with 149!  He has Nova winning it all. over Michigan, with Duke in the F4.  

So.  It's hard to figure who wins (Nova is the fivethirtyeight favorite right now at a mere 22% chance of winning.  Purdue and Michigan have 5% chances, according to them (seems odd, given Michigan is the highest seed left in the West, but they do the algorithms, not me).  

Everyone good luck -- given the above scenarios,  it seems unlikely we'll know the winner come next Monday.  It may take the championship game (Michigan v. Villanova?) to tell. 

 

Obvious Bros Podcast Bracket Predictions

DON'T FORGET TO PLAY OUR BRACKET CHALLENGE: HERE'S THE LINK --

OBVIOUS BROTHERS CHALLENGE

Here is the write up of our podcast predictions from today's special Bracket Podcast.

12-seed over 5-seed:
Obvious Steve -- New Mexico St (NMSU) (MW)
KG -- Davidson (SO), NMSU
Swerve -- NMSU
Obvious John -- NMSU

High seed in Sweet Sixteen:
Obvious Steve -- UCLA (EA), New Mexico St (MW)
KG -- Loyola Chicago, New Mexico St, Houston, Charleston
Swerve -- Loyola
Obvious John -- NMSU

Bracket Busters:
Obvious Steve -- NMSU & UCLA in S16
KG -- Davidson beating KY
Swerve -- TCU, NMSU, Loyola, & Mizzou in S16
Obvious John -- Rhode Island

Final Four:
Obvious Steve -- UVA*, Michigan, Villanova, Duke. (changed to AZ after injury)
KG --UVA*, UNC, Purdue, Michigan St. (changed to AZ after injury)
Josh -- Cincy*, Gonzaga, Purdue, Duke (switched to UVA?!?!?)
Obvious John -- UVA, Michigan, Texas Tech (homer), Michigan St

Winner:
Obvious Steve -- Villanova.
KG -- UVA* (changed to UNC after injury)
Josh -- Duke (switched to UVA?!!?!?)
Obvious John -- Michigan.

Final Bracket Tip: Getting to 10...err 11 (in F4)

Hi. Thank you to the few loyal readers as I walk through some bracket picking tips -- today's will the last one.  The next Obvious Brothers post will include our picks for the tournament -- maybe we'll even publish our full brackets (of integrity?) -- after our early week bonus Bracket podcast (Soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers); a reminder, Swerve (@joshuajgrubbs) and KG (my son) will join us for the annual r review and renewal of our bragging rights (betting is illegal, right?) picks for the tournament.

Today, let's try to get a Final Four.  The title, if you don't recognize it, is from this stat: the average of the seeding of the Final Four teams is between 10 and 11 (10.9).  Last year, if you forgot, it was two 1's in the Final game, UNC & Gonzaga, 3 Oregon & the outlier, 7 South Carolina.  That's 12.

Remember: it's not like the last two teams playing for the Final Four berth two weeks from tonight will say "only one of us can win because it has to be an average of around 11" -- but it does indicate that picking 4 4's to make it is statistically very highly unlikely.

Some other statistical notes to remember:

• All 4 1-seeds have made the final 4 only once;
• No 3-seed has ever won the championship (not sure what this means, other than a statistical oddity, but it is a fun statistical oddity);
• No one higher than a 7 seed has ever won the championship -- so you're way out there if you have an 8 winning it;
• Stats say at least 1 1-seed makes the F4 and somewhere between 1 and 2 (keep that in mind). 

So, here's today's exercise: using Friday's blog on the 8 best prospects, and today's bracket from the most accurate bracketologist (Dave Ommen at bracketville.wordpress.com
-- he's had the most accurate bracket 2 of last 5 years according to Bracket Matrix, and he's the most accurate over the last 5 years), let's see what we have.

I'll lay out the 7 we had on Friday (Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan and Ohio State) and add #1 seed UVA (they ARE the #1 and they looked awfully good this weekend) and see where they are in Dave's bracket.

(I can't get "blogger" to do any kind of tables, so we'll have to go with this layout)

SOUTH                                                                                                                   EAST
Virginia (1)                                                                                                    Villanova (1)
Ohio St (5)                                                                                                      Purdue (2)

WEST                                                                                                                     MIDWEST
Michigan (3)                                                                                                    Gonzaga (4)
                                                                                                                         Michigan St (3)
                                                                                                                         Duke (2)

BTW, it's not unusual for there to be a "bracket of death," in one region (yesterday's Jerry Palm version had 4 of these teams in the Midwest!), so this isn't unusual.

If tonight's bracket looks like this, I'll have Michigan in the Final Four.  (Add "3").

If you picked the top two 1's, the V's (Virginia and Villanova), that leaves what to do with the Midwest. 

Gonzaga has been a hot pick: go UVA, Villanova, Michigan, & Gonzaga and you've got 9.

Take Purdue instead of Villanova and you are at 10.

Stick with our Friday KenPom ratings, and take Ohio St over Virginia, and take Duke out of Midwest and you have 11.

None of this tells you who to pick.  But it gives you an idea of how not to get too crazy with high seeds.  (FYI, in my practice bracket yesterday morning using J Palm, I had #7 Rhode Island beating UVA in the South...a dream Cinderella, but not likely; I had 2 3's and a 1, for 14...probably high). 

Looking forward to Selection Sunday (despite the new, stupid rollout) and look forward to seeing your brackets over the next four days -- Madness begins Tuesday night in Dayton!  Bring it on!

Hope you've enjoyed these tidbits.  #BoilerUp

Bubble busters: General Rules

Today I continue my prep for Selection Sunday and bracket-fill in by looking for a few paragraphs at the early games in brackets and reminding readers of the general rules for those early pairings.  Here's a quick reminder, then some analysis:

1. 12-seeds beat 5's regularly -- at least one has for 9 of last 10 years.  
2. A double-digit seed for many years has made it to the round of 16 -- last year it 11-seed Xavier in the West, who even went to E8.
3. The last few years, a team has won the "First Round" game in Dayton (known to the rest of as "play-in games") and won their next game, too -- given they are typically 11 or 12 seeds, this is a "bubble buster."
4. Never have all top 4 seeds in all regions made it to the Sweet 16; "chalk" only takes you so far;

1. The trick, of course, is to figure out which one, and not miss two games instead of none.  Thursday I wrote this post on my personal blog sight about who seem to be the hot takes here.  Looking at today's Jerry Palm's bracket (my favorite, as he's a fellow Purdue grad), he has Ohio St. v. Vermont in the South, Gonzaga v. W. Kentucky (the speculative winner in the Conference USA) in the East, Kentucky v. New Mexico St in the West, and Clemson v. South Dakota St in the Midwest.  My first take is that Gonzaga is the safest 5 in the list; the other 3 12's are mid-major-follower darlings and not much of anyone believes strongly in the three 5's.  Expect the 12 over 5 trend to continue with those matchups.

2. Given the above paragraph, with a 12 beating a 5, it isn't a surprise to think a 12 can go on to beat a 4 seed and get to the Sweet 16.   Unlike the above paragraph, we are now going 2 games deep, so it's highly speculative, but if Vermont beats Ohio St (just to use the upper left hand bracket, not to annoy my OSU readers :)), they would play a 4-seed Auburn, who looked vulnerable lately and yesterday very much so in the second half against Alabama. In other words, highly imaginable.

3. I went over this in my Thursday post, but today's Palm bracket has different games: OU v. Syracuse (as 11's) in the East, and St. Mary's (CA) v. Marquette (again, 11's) in the Midwest.  OU has been off the last weeks, and I wonder how they'll handle Syracuse's zone (not well, based on their frantic, undisciplined play); St. Mary's hasn't played, let a lone beaten, anyone like Marquette all year, except for a win at Gonzaga.  Syracuse would then play Florida; Marquette would play Houston.  If that was the scenario, I would see Marquette the most likely one to continue the trend.  Could OU win both games?  They have the talent.

4.  Again, now we are getting a lot of games into the mix, but this is worth remembering before you hit the "chalk" button on your bracket software and leave it: someone in the top 4 lines will lose before the end of the first weekend.  My opening pick (remember, this only means a 5 over a 4, not a huge upset) to break chalk -- given yesterday's blog on probable winners, I'd go with Gonzaga in the East over Texas Tech (Obvious John's former love).  And, to throw my Ohio St friends a bone, the Ohio St-Auburn matchup would be tempting, too.  Ohio St was also on that probable winners list, remember.

That's today's insight.  I hope you are enjoying it -- there's been good readership (for my blog).  And listen to our bonus podcast on soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers -- we'll cover all these points with a couple opinionated (if not necessarily accurate, obviously 😁) guests. 

Your Bracket Winner Short List

(this post will be updated regularly before games begin next Thursday, March 14th)

On today's podcast (soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers), Obvious John said something to the effect "only about 8 teams can really win it all."  Obviously.

But who are the 8?

This blog post will give you the quick, KenPom answer: Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and Ohio State.  As you will see, you might add UVA and Michigan.

Why?

One simple way of reducing the possibilities is to look at Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings (kenpom.com) -- as this story from last year points out, two telling stats are being in the top 20 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency -- that's the profile of a national champion.  It rarely happens that a lop-sided team wins it all.  (The Bleacher Report story tells you the outliers going into last year and you can see UNC fit the bill last year, too)

My list from above is for teams in the Top 30 -- stretching it a bit.  If you want ONLY Top 20 in both the list is short: Duke (O2 & D10), Michigan State (10 & 7), and Gonzaga (11 & 17).   (this partially justifies our friends @StheSpodcast having Gonzaga national champions in their 4th bracket trial run 😃)

That's a start.  The numbers will change over the course of the weekend, but not much. 

And you have to look at the matchups -- one of these teams having a bracket without meeting another such team pretty much makes them a F4 lock.  At least as a pick.

Good luck.