This year's Triple Crown is about over, and I don't think the next three Obvious Brothers pods (https://soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers) will spend a lot of time on the horses, so I thought I'd put down some points coming out of the Preakness.
Swerve and I both won money on the Preakness. I think the short line here is this: don't bet the favorite! Always Dreaming went of as a $1.20 payoff for the $1, so there wasn't much point.
I had Cloud Computing on my tickets for the Wood, where he finished second. So, when he was running in the Preakness, I knew he was a viable contender.
So, simply, I covered him, Classic Empire (the 2nd favorite), and Count Mo Money, another non-runner in the Derby. Over those horses and Always Dreaming (known as CYA).
It was the race you kind of expected in the Preakness, on a fast track, with Classic Empire and Always Dreaming showing the early speed (such as it was -- the half post was slower than the Derby). And Cloud Computing hanging right there and moving past them both, barely edging Empire, for the win.
The exacta paid $49.20 for a $1 bet.
So, a good day.
Swerve and I already have plans for the Belmont. We're looking at actually being there.
But the Belmont always loses a lot of juice if no one comes out of the first two having not swept.
On the other hand, it's a bettor's sweet spot.
You get back to a more balanced field -- it seemed Classic Empire and Looking at Lee would move on to New York (the early word), and maybe all the top 5 in the Preakness (Always Dreaming should take some time off). Look for some from the Derby who skipped the Preakness to come back -- especially someone like Irish War Cry who won the Wood, so has a lot of New York track experience. And there'll always be a couple newbies wanting in on that Triple Crown sugar.
This should be fun. It won't be as easy as the Preakness, with an odds on favorite, but it should give some value, especially if you can put together something like a good exacta.
BTW, our Pick 6 efforts, with Obvious John, got smoked like a ring kielbasi in the first race. We ended up with just 3 wins in 6 races; the payoff if you got them right was $4715. "Just"...maybe at Belmont.
Good luck, horse fans!
