On to Belmont (or, how we won on the Preakness!)

This year's Triple Crown is about over, and I don't think the next three Obvious Brothers pods (https://soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers) will spend a lot of time on the horses, so I thought I'd put down some points coming out of the Preakness.

Swerve and I both won money on the Preakness.  I think the short line here is this: don't bet the favorite! Always Dreaming went of as a $1.20 payoff for the $1, so there wasn't much point.

I had Cloud Computing on my tickets for the Wood, where he finished second.  So, when he was running in the Preakness, I knew he was a viable contender.

So, simply, I covered him, Classic Empire (the 2nd favorite), and Count Mo Money, another non-runner in the Derby.  Over those horses and Always Dreaming (known as CYA).

It was the race you kind of expected in the Preakness, on a fast track, with Classic Empire and Always Dreaming showing the early speed (such as it was -- the half post was slower than the Derby).  And Cloud Computing hanging right there and moving past them both, barely edging Empire, for the win.

The exacta paid $49.20 for a $1 bet.

So, a good day.

Swerve and I already have plans for the Belmont.  We're looking at actually being there.

But the Belmont always loses a lot of juice if no one comes out of the first two having not swept.

On the other hand, it's a bettor's sweet spot.  

You get back to a more balanced field -- it seemed Classic Empire and Looking at Lee would move on to New York (the early word), and maybe all the top 5 in the Preakness (Always Dreaming should take some time off).  Look for some from the Derby who skipped the Preakness to come back -- especially someone like Irish War Cry who won the Wood, so has a lot of New York track experience.  And there'll always be a couple newbies wanting in on that Triple Crown sugar.

This should be fun.  It won't be as easy as the Preakness, with an odds on favorite, but it should give some value, especially if you can put together something like a good exacta.

BTW, our Pick 6 efforts, with Obvious John, got smoked like a ring kielbasi in the first race.  We ended up with just 3 wins in 6 races; the payoff if you got them right was $4715.  "Just"...maybe at Belmont.

Good luck, horse fans!

Primer for Day One of March Madness & the Brackets

Yes, it"s finally here: March Madness.  And, ICYMI, KG and I are here in Milwaukee for the errr first round games of the tournament, especially and including Purdues 727 ET matchup with Vermont (who they, knock wood, beat by like a hundred, to quote a Vermonter from yesterday, just last year).

 It's 2 hours till Notre Dame tips off with Princeton (you wouldn't want the Ivy Leaguers to sit and wait, would you? -- I've posted all the game times and TV stations below) so your brackets had better be ready.

Here are some of what seems to be consensus points:

• There are no great teams this year, rather like last year.  Thus, we have no consensus choice.  Vegas, in a rather odd move, has chosen #2 seed Duke as the betting favorite, while fivethirtyeight (Nate Silver started as a sports stat geek) has defending champ Villanova as slight favorites over Gonzaga (both 1 seeds).  Many experts have picked UCLA, a 3 seed who scores a lot, and several, including former President Obama, have a rematch of North Carolina and Duke in the final. It's been hypothesized that ANY 1 or 2 or UCLA could win. 
• There are several strange games in the first round, and rather strange favorites.  12 seed Middle Tennessee State, who beat Michigan St in the opening round last year as a 15 seed, is favored, in a game I'll see live, over 5 seed Minnesota.  Crazy talk.  Minnesota lost a starter in their last game last Saturday, but still...
• Wichita St, who everyone thinks is underseeded at 10, is a 6 point favorite over annual darling Dayton, the 7 seed!  say what?!
• Today's hot upset games start right off -- some have concerns about Notre Dame and the Ivy Tigers, some wonder if Virginia, an infamous 5 seed (one almost always loses), can score with UNC Wilmington in the next game, and then it is Butler, a 4 seed, against Winthrop, an  experienced 13.  And the Middle Tennessee game is at 4 ET.
• At 430 on TBS, Northwestern plays its first ever NCAA tournament game against Vanderbilt, in the second SAT Bowl of the day.  It's an 8-9 game and those are usually hard to pick and worth watching.  Silver gives Vandy 55% chance to move on. 
• If you've not filled out your bracket, or nailed it down, remember some tidbits --
• All the one seeds have made it to the final 4 only once;
• A one seed wins the tournament over half the time;
• An average of 1.25 one seeds has made the final 4 the last few years (that's down);
• The averaging seeding of final 4s is 10.9 -- so I heard someone go SMU (6), NC (1), KS (1), AZ (2) yesterday, which matches it.   But, remember, that's a stat, not a rule. 
• For several years, one team that won a play in (errr first four) game went on to win the next game -- that means Kansas St or USC (who won an amazing game last night).
• No 3 seed has ever won.  

Here are the games and TV.  times are ET. (second games times are approx)

Notre Dame (5) v Princeton, 1215 CBS

UVA (5) v UNC W 1240 truTV (hope you have it)

Butler (4) v Winthrop  130 TNT

Gonzaga (1) v So Dak St 2 TBS

West Va (4) v Bucknell 245 CBS 

FL (4) v E. Tennessee St 310 truTV

Min (5) v Middle Tennessee St 4 TNT

NW (8) v Vandy 430 TBS

MD (6) v Xavier 650 TNT

Villanova (1) v Mount St Mary's 720 TBS

Purdue (4) v Vermont 727 truTV 

Fl st (3) v Fl Gulf Coast 920 TNT

Wisc (8) v Va Tech 940 CBS

AZ (2) v N Dakota 950 TBS

Iowa St (5) v Nev 957 truTV (Ill be there)

Next pod, review, and preview

Our latest podcast appeared yesterday on Soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers.  Please go there and subscribe -- we really want to give away that prize (right, John?).

Our GTWTW (Games To Watch This Week): John picked Kansas over Baylor yesterday; then SC over Florida on Tuesday night.  Steve picked Mich tonight over Minn; then Wed night NC over Louisville in the  ACC GoW.

We picked Final 4 from Committee's list from last Saturday (Feb 11):  John went 'nova, Fl St, Gonzaga, NC; Steve went 'nova, Kansas, Oregon, NC.

We are planning a pre-Oscar pod this week, with special guest Swerve.   Look for it.  And subscribe!

Podcast out for Feb 10

This week we talk Super Bowl, the Committee's pick of 16 teams, our games to look for this coming week, then a final on IU and the bubble (and other B10 teams too).  Subscribe.

https://soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers/week-of-feb-10-sb-post-pre-cbb

The Bros & NFL Playoff Fantasy Football (Winning!)

We haven't had the time (nor the inclination -- jinx!) to talk on the podcast about our team this year in NFL playoff fantasy football.

We tied for 1st!  (yes, believe it or not, of 50 entrants, one other one had EXACTLY the same 12 picks -- this led to many dumb obvious jokes).

But it was close -- the final standings had us in T-1 by 1.1 points -- with us having 395.  That's about .25% margin of error.

OF COURSE there was no money involved (wouldn't that be illegal?), but we are good bragging (see this blog post :))

But the Super Bowl was tense -- we went in 10 points ahead of anyone with different picks (we had Tom Brady and Julio Jones).  The guy who ended up in 3rd had Freeman; the guy in 4th had Matt Ryan.

Although we weren't thrilled by the Patriots winning (listeners will have heard us both say on last week's podcast that we thought the Falcons would win), we were thrilled the Falcons didn't get the ball more and give it to Freeman, or Ryan pass for more yards, etc.  

In case you care, here are our picks (those of you familiar with this type of thing know that you have X positions to fill, and 1 player from each team to fill them): QB-- Brady & Rodgers; RB-- Bell, Elliot & Murray (OAK); WR-- Jones, Beckham, & Landry (MIA); TE -- Kelce & Graham; K -- Prater (DET); Defense -- Houston.

Sweet win.  Now if either of us can do the same in March Madness...(touch wood)

Look for our next pod, probably Friday afternoon, when we'll talk Super Bowl, what we think of the Selection Committee coming out with their top 16 on Saturday (and what they might be), and our pick of a GoW (Game of the Week) in CBB for the coming week.  (Reminder: I got mine right with a 1 point Purdue win Saturday; John picked Arizona to beat Oregon. Close one! :))

Keep listening, subscribe, and tell your friends.  That Depends contract depends on YOU! :)

Jan 27 podcast is up (day late!)

We had to work this week, so the Obvious Brothers pod is just loaded on soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers.  Please subscribe, follow, hit "like"...all those things to make people believe we have fans.  PLEASE!

Week of Jan 20 podcast is up!

Yes! This week's pod is in the can and it's now on SoundCloud!  Listen!  Subscribe!  Tell your friends!  If you don't have any, tell your relatives, especially since you owe them for the pain of the holidays.  Kill 16 minutes with the Obvious Bros.

This week's pod is out!

Hey! Yo!

This week's podcast is out.  18 minutes of BS, with our special guest Swerve (you find out the famed origin of this nickname) -- talking the Alabama-Clemson game, ACC basketball, our picks, and a record number of uses of the laugh track. :)  Enjoy.

And remember to subscribe on SoundCloud.

soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers

Week of Jan 6 Pod is Out!

Hear ye, hear ye!  The latest Obvious Brothers podcast is up on Soundcloud (soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers -- obviously!)

We talk some NFL, then a bit on the college football playoffs, some IU & PU & B10 basketball, then our famous 3 picks -- Steve is now 8-3-1 and JP 5-6-1.

Listen! Subscribe on Soundcloud -- we are still waiting to hear from iTunes, but we need listeners!

We cut this week's pod to keep it close to our 15 minute guideline (no jokes were left on the cutting room floor, no matter matter how bad).

We are working with an agent to get a guest for next week -- but do we need someone else being obvious?  or a genius? :)